Study · November 2026
How early can B2B topics be spotted?
A retrospective blind test with 832 measurable recommendations across six industries. At six past dates between January 2024 and April 2025, a method selected topics using only sources that were public at the time. Twelve months later, public measures decided which topics had materialized.
of selected topics materialized
in the control group
median head start
Published November 2026 by Bureau Wehrmann / WMNN
Key findings
Topics selected by the method materialized in 44 % of cases. Topics drawn from the same sources without the method’s selection reached 28 %.
The difference held in all six industries, from 7 percentage points in healthcare and life sciences to 22 in technology and software.
Where a selected topic materialized, the method was 9 months ahead of the mainstream in the median.
The success criterion was strict: a topic only counted as materialized if it rose in at least two of three public channels – search interest, news coverage and expert communities.
The 44 % is therefore a lower bound. Many B2B topics take hold first in trade media, analyst reports and conference programmes, which the test does not measure.
Results by industry
| Industry | plinio® TL | Control group | Difference | Median head start |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technology & Software | 45 % | 23 % | +22 pts | 10 months |
| Insurance & Risk | 51 % | 32 % | +19 pts | 8 months |
| Manufacturing & Industry | 45 % | 26 % | +19 pts | 9 months |
| Banking & Fintech | 44 % | 26 % | +18 pts | 9+ months |
| Energy & Utilities | 37 % | 20 % | +17 pts | 9 months |
| Healthcare & Life Sciences | 46 % | 39 % | +7 pts | 8 months |
| Six industries pooled | 44 % | 28 % | +16 pts | ~9 months |
Retrospective blind test 2024–2025 · strict measurement · interactive view and per-industry detail on the methodology page.
How the test worked
Six cutoffs
Between January 2024 and April 2025. At each date, the method saw only what was public by then.
Selection
From those sources, the method selected topics, each with a reasoning and a list of sources.
Control group
Topics from the same sources and the same model, without the method’s selection. Any hindsight helps both groups equally.
Measurement
Twelve months later, a separate routine measured each topic in three public channels. Topics without a measurable signal were excluded.
Limits of the study
- It is a retrospective test: it shows what the method would have selected at past dates.
- In the test, the method worked from a typical profile per industry, not from a specific company.
- Newer cutoffs scored better in both groups. The gap to the control group is the meaningful figure, not the absolute rate.
- Six industries are validated. Four more are in exploratory testing because the historical sources underrepresent them.
For journalists
Suggested citation
Bureau Wehrmann / WMNN (2026): How early can B2B topics be spotted? A retrospective blind test with plinio TL. getplinio.com/en/study/
Downloads
Charts may be used freely with the source “plinio TL / Bureau Wehrmann”.
Bureau Wehrmann / WMNN is a B2B communication agency near Augsburg with more than 20 years of practice. It makes plinio TL, a platform for predictive thought leadership.
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